How the public really feel about a new Prime Minister

If someone told me a couple of months ago that the UK’s political landscape would be flipped completely on its head by mid July, I would 100% have shrugged it off as more political drama that doesn’t really mean anything right now. However, I was wrong. Using Orlo Insights, we’ve been tracking the public trust and sentiment across 2 million sources since Starmer resigned, and it’s shown that this period has been anything but normal. 

To break it down, we’ve put together a timeline of events alongside the public’s emotions and trust levels, to give a real time look into exactly what the public thinks, and why.

22 June – 3 July

When Starmer announced his resignation, the immediate public response wasn’t joy or sadness, it was sheer bewilderment. 

During the first week and a bit of tracking, emotions like curiosity and confusion dominated the top spots. While it’s true that these emotions have consistently appeared at the top, the themes behind these emotions are what gives the best insight. Anger also played a key role with people demanding a general election and accusing Burnham of being undemocratic.

The main themes behind these emotions were that the public were really trying to figure out what was happening and what this announcement actually means: Who is taking over? Do we get a say? Is Andy Burnham even allowed to do this without a General Election?

Trust dropped quickly into the “very distrusting” zone. Interestingly, the negative sentiment wasn’t necessarily directed at Andy Burnham himself, but at the process. Terms like “undemocratic replacement” and calls for a snapshot election flooded the narrative.

A brief bump occurred on June 29 after Burnham’s “Number 10 from the North” speech, lifting trust by around 10% to 20%. However, as economic scepticism took hold, that optimism faded, dragging trust back down by 3 July.

66.35% of people felt very distrusting.

3 July – 10 July

By early July, we saw the conversation switch from new PM logistics and general elections, to specific policy reactions. 

Over the first weekend in July, disappointment surged, making it the single top emotion for the first time. This was triggered by two events:

• The UK media consultation: Framed by critics as state control over independent creators, sparking an influx of anger and disgust into the top rankings for the first time.
• Starmer’s BBC Interview: His first broadcast since stepping down sparked intense debate about his record and broken promises, however there was some praise for him about being a ‘steady pair of hands’, which added to that debate.

63.49% of people felt very distrusting.

The turbulence continued when Nigel Farage announced his resignation and plan to run in the subsequent by election, drawing direct comparisons with Burnham leaving his Mayoral role to run for Parliament.

77.24% of people felt very distrusting.

By 10 July, after Burnham secured the backing of 322 Labour MPs, disapproval took the top spot. The public felt a transition was being fast tracked behind closed doors without a popular mandate.

13 July – 15 July

The week of 13 July stood out as the most complex period in the data, due to hugely contrasting emotions. 

On one hand, there was optimism as England were doing well in the World Cup and there was chatter about a potential bank holiday, however on the other hand, shock and sadness dominated following the tragic murder of former MP Ann Widdecombe. Sadness became one of the top emotions as counter terrorism investigations began.

Simultaneously, with Burnham officially passing the nomination threshold, confusion reclaimed the top spot as thousands asked: “How long can an unelected Prime Minister actually govern before calling a General Election?” As soon as any threshold or major announcement around Burnham came out, this was the immediate response. 

Trust saw a brief lift on July 15 when Burnham delivered his first speech in the House of Commons following the clearance of the Hillsborough Law. However, this was quickly countered by local debates regarding Greater Manchester’s spending during his mayoralty and fears over potential future tax hikes.

17 July – 22 July

As Keir Starmer took his final bow at PMQs and formally tendered his resignation to The King, the tone of the online conversation went through a substantial change.

On 20 July, as Burnham officially entered 10 Downing Street, curiosity and confusion tied at the top of the chart. A sign of a nation watching and waiting.

However, on 21 July the data recorded its most positive readings since tracking began:

• Trust score: Reached its highest level since tracking started.
• Sentiment: Shifted to its most balanced position yet, driven by immediate policy announcements, including proposed cuts to VAT on energy bills to ease cost of living worries.
• New emotions: For the first time in 30 days, approval and admiration appeared in the top emotion rankings.

Only 2.08% of people felt very distrusting.

While scepticism is still rife, with continued calls for a General Election and criticism from political opponents, the initial wave of pure hostility has begun to yield to cautious optimism.

Looking past the daily numbers, all acquired through Orlo, analysing a full months worth of real conversational data reveals four major trends about how the British public processes political change:

1. Policy announcements drive emotions more than leadership drama – people care about what actually affects them

While leadership speculation creates a constant stream of background noise, actual policy announcements trigger the strongest emotional spikes. Starmer’s Defence Investment Plan yielded a 20% trust bounce on 1 July, whereas the UK Media Consultation on 6 July caused massive increases in disappointment and anger. The public responds far more to real, tangible proposals that affect daily life than to Westminster reshuffles.

2.Distrust in the process outweighs any personal issues

The primary driving force around negative sentiment throughout this transition was not Andy Burnham as an individual, but the perception of an undemocratic process. Phrases that we saw like “lack of public mandate” and “engineered by the establishment” showed that the British public is extremely sensitive to leadership handovers occurring without a General Election. They want their say and it shows; trust improves when politicians address this process head on or offer clear policy justifications.

3. Local proposals lead to national debate

When regional ideas leak into national politics, public interpretation changes quickly. Burnham’s proposal to cut business rates for local venues was aimed at economic growth, but we saw an immediate response that presented itself as economic fear. People online were talking about tax increases that might come off the back of this proposal. Policies without clear national framing often create unexpected anxiety and rumours. 

4. Immediate household policies can turn the tide overnight

General election debates and political arguments keep frustration at a steady simmer, but policy announcements that affect people and their hard earned cash can turn the entire conversation around, almost immediately. The announcement of proposed VAT cuts on energy bills provided the single highest trust score in 30 days, introducing approval and admiration into the top emotions for the first time. Direct cost of living relief consistently cuts through political turmoil faster than anything else. 

Key Data Takeaways

What a month it’s been. Between resignations, leadership contests, national tragedies, World Cup excitement, and policy changes, keeping up with public opinion has felt a bit like chasing a moving target.

But when you strip away the headline spin, the data shows a clear story: people care deeply about process, react quickly to policy, and want leadership that directly addresses their everyday cost of living concerns.

Understanding these subtle shifts in trust and emotion isn’t just an interesting exercise, it’s vital for any organisation trying to communicate effectively with the public.

With Orlo Insights and Orlo’s Trust Indicator,  you don’t have to wait for polls or guess what’s driving public frustration or approval. The platform puts the results of over two million sources of daily digital conversations right at your fingertips, turning raw public chatter into actionable strategy in real time.

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Whether you want a quick tour of the platform or want to explore how Orlo Insights can support your team’s specific goals, we’d love to show you what it can do.